What Bitcoin Is and Is Not & The Ominous Chart of the DOW

There is an excellent explanation on what Bitcoin is and is not in layman's term if you scroll down to the middle of this article on ZerooHedge. The article talks about "How To Steal Bitcoins In Three Easy Steps" 1. Copy the keys 2. Getting Away With it and 3. Get Rich. At my last check, Bitcoin is trading at $658.20, with a low of $615 and a high of $700. The trading band has narrowed considerably, low volume on an up day, and much higher volume on a big move down. Are we about to witness a big break south on big volume?

On another topic, market participants have been talking about the eerie similarity between the DOW in 1928-1928 and now (see chart below). With the Dow, Nasdaq and even S&P hitting record closes even in the face of the first Taper last week, the comparison of the two market indices may seem laughable to many bulls but Black Swan event needs no warning and that is why it is called a Black Swan. Severe market corrections do happen as history tells us unfortunately we will only know when we look back. Irrational exuberance has taken hold, major bears have bailed, some have even turned bullish. Market multiples artificially supported by 4 rounds of QEs and mountain heap of cheap liquidity, the big correction could just be around the corner. You know how sometimes one can smell the rain even though the storm clouds are still forming in the Pacific ocean, that is how I feel now about the state of the market. Buyers beware.

Precious metals have been under pressure since the very first hint of Fed taper this summer. Physical gold in particular is looking very attractive, here or $100 lower from here presents a very good entry point for the next leg up. I bought gold when it was $680 in 2006 (still own it, physical is not something I would sell), and I loaded up on Half Franklin at $9.98/oz of silver that same summer and sold them when silver hit $45. I like silver here, it has a commercial component and if I must be invested at this time, silver etf would be a good place to park some money short term. It also looks to be finding and building support here. I have been trading smaller silver miners as a proxy to the Silver ETF (SLV) and Silver Wheaton (SLW). Have also added to my 1 OZ silver eagle collection, although I rather not to have to pay for the $2-4 spread but coin dealers have to make money so I am cool with that. As for gold coins, supply seems tight at the local shop guess they have all gone overseas to the Chinese and Indians who have been stocking on them.

A Trade At A Time...Staying Vigilant Amidst Market Volatility

Uugh...I have definitely been procrastinating here.

Update.....It is late afternoon Friday Nov 8, 2013, a day after the big sell off in the DOW, the Nasdaq and the S&P (from the get go in the morning, one we have not had in a long long time). Today is also the day the markets (miraculously) recouped all the previous day's losses (despite Twitter (TWTR) losing another 8% and Tesla (TSLA) trying to find support). One has to respect the market. The market is after all a reflection of the collective actions of the trading crowd and psyche - the greed and fear. The % of folks using margins to trade and the amount of leverage used is now as high as in the summer of 2007 during the Lehman crisis. Market indices seem to move in clips, my level II quotes have also not been orderly to my naked eyes. The culprit to me is the HFTs, hijacking quote feeds many seconds ahead and stalling some whether intentionally or otherwise. Often, my level II quotes on some stocks on Ameritrade ThinkOrSwim (TOS) look very disorderly while on others they look fine. This is how flash crash happens, bids being withheld to precipitate a drop in the asks from the unsuspected sellers. This market is Man versus Machine, it is clear ordinary investors are being had. Many have written about the HFTs extensively and I want to know why hasn't the SEC taken action! Do they need another 600 point flash crash before they act!!

So in the last many months I have watched my portfolio yanked 180 degrees, up and down and sideways and I am ahead by about 15% when it could have more if I had been more diligent. It is my own fault really. If I had known the Fed would be too chickened to taper and the DOW, S&P and the Nasdaq were going to make the 20-30% relentless climb in 2013, I would have put 1/5th of my money in a broad market index fund...hindsight is 20/20. The last 10 months have definitely been bad news is good news, business as usual with the Fed flooding the market with all the money it can print. Well, even PIMCO's Gross has his bad days, what about a small fry like me who is just trying to make some money from trading to pay her bills.

One can no longer trade on fundamentals, stock price defies logic and leaves even many professionals searching for explanations. It is the Flavor of the Month trade, the whatever is on CNBC trade. I find myself reaching for Alexander Elder's book "Trading for a living - Psychology, Trading Tactics and Money Management" on my shelf. I am a momentum trader, I get into a position if my level II data suggests good size bids and/or momentum. For me to put my cash to work and sell cash covered puts or add a position, I look for speculative stocks often in the news with moderate to high beta and implied volatility on their options of between 70%-130%. After all I am selling volatility in puts. When that volatility subsides (or time decay), I will collect a neat sum for the premium if the trade does not turn sour on me. This in essence is my trading strategy. I trade for a living, albeit a small one (my life is simple), so anytime I can scalp for profits I will trade.

If you are interested in Alexander Elder's books Here is the link on Amazon

In the past I would sell cash covered puts on a candidate I have identified, 2 to 3 months out for a nice 6-10% if they expire worthless come expiration time. In the last few months, the market has been so volatile that my puts would decay quickly and then it would just stall out as market or my stock get whipsawed. Often it would come under bear raid as they call it; traders emboldened by cheap leverage. Not surprisingly, this often happened on a bad market day coincided with momentum traders reacting to a negative opinion piece on SeekingAlpha. To me, the market has become nonsensical, the gyrations on individual stock much too big and it can only point to margin trading and participants trying to ramp a stock up or down and profit from it. 'Risks On" with the leverage one can get it seems. So I find myself pulling the trigger to close out a profitable trade sooner than ever before. For the same reason I no longer sell covered calls on every stock in my holdings but instead ride my positions and exit when share price reaches my target. If I had sold calls and the stock spikes a lot I would have to pay more to close out my covered calls and would therefore not be able to participate in the sudden big gain. I recalled Cramer telling his viewers that he does not want his viewers to sell covered calls (for the same reason). I am not a big fan of Cramer, however, his calls do move the market and many traders listen to what he has to say and take the cues from his show whether they choose to trade against or trade with his calls.

Lastly, why isn't Pimco's Bill Gross a candidate for the next Chairman of the Fed? I am certainly not the only one who thinks he would make a great Fed Chairman. Wall Street bankers may not like the Bond king, he is however a sensible man if you read his investment letters and writings. America's financial future and the future of the next generation is much at stake here and another artificially created boom bust cycle will no doubt dethrone America and the Dollar from the world stage if that process has not already begun.